Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.156765 0.175888 0.196525 0.220466 0.247500 0.277106 0.312019
2025-11-30 0.127182 0.152486 0.181740 0.218127 0.262270 0.314209 0.380136
2025-12-07 0.100590 0.127899 0.161464 0.205897 0.263397 0.335600 0.433619
2025-12-14 0.082564 0.110807 0.147535 0.199053 0.269870 0.364401 0.501164
2025-12-21 0.068838 0.097111 0.135851 0.193200 0.276619 0.394575 0.575852
2025-12-28 0.060473 0.089407 0.131055 0.195944 0.295559 0.444412 0.686895
2026-01-04 0.052171 0.080532 0.123251 0.193041 0.305694 0.482962 0.788024
2026-01-11 0.046079 0.074074 0.118086 0.193292 0.320633 0.531176 0.913156
2026-01-18 0.041492 0.069305 0.114841 0.196049 0.339981 0.589528 1.065963
2026-01-25 0.035736 0.061789 0.106035 0.188062 0.339627 0.614077 1.163236
2026-02-01 0.030685 0.054783 0.097126 0.178521 0.334900 0.629887 1.246924
2026-02-08 0.027083 0.049864 0.091226 0.173563 0.337849 0.660330 1.364790
2026-02-15 0.023879 0.045342 0.085614 0.168660 0.340828 0.692718 1.496242
2026-02-22 0.022050 0.043189 0.084193 0.171820 0.360692 0.762972 1.724236
2026-03-01 0.019472 0.039225 0.078706 0.165858 0.360476 0.790919 1.863287
2026-03-08 0.017541 0.036315 0.074958 0.163018 0.366646 0.834116 2.047984
2026-03-15 0.015854 0.033692 0.071457 0.160190 0.372398 0.877453 2.242812
2026-03-22 0.014903 0.032520 0.070895 0.163909 0.394125 0.962638 2.564506
2026-03-29 0.013669 0.030564 0.068345 0.162589 0.403398 1.018853 2.821413
2026-04-05 0.012731 0.029158 0.066857 0.163616 0.418791 1.093679 3.148356
2026-04-12 0.012006 0.028154 0.066176 0.166550 0.439702 1.187187 3.552737
2026-04-19 0.010807 0.025871 0.062138 0.160267 0.434760 1.208764 3.743402
2026-04-26 0.009659 0.023574 0.057783 0.152518 0.424499 1.213508 3.882644